Population and Survey Analysts (PASA) presented findings from a demographic study of New Caney ISD at the Board of Trustees meeting, March. 17. PASA assessed the current student population, analyzed recent trends in geocoded students, forecasted additional housing occupancies and their resulting student yields, and considered broader economic and employment concerns. Based on these evaluations, PASA projects enrollment growth, based on a moderate growth scenario, of approximately 21% over the five years between 2024 and 2029. New Caney ISD enrollment could grow to nearly 28,000 students by the 2034-35 school year, again based on a moderate growth scenario.
The study accounts for both short-term fluctuations and long-term trends. PASA analyzed distinct factors specific to NCISD. These encompassed economic and social aspects such as job growth, employment sectors, socioeconomic characteristics, quality of life indicators, housing construction, land development potential, charter and private school plans, and household size and age.
PASA employs a conservative methodology to project a Ten-Year Enrollment Forecast. Additionally, PASA develops both a Reduced Enrollment Scenario and an Accelerated Enrollment Scenario to account for varying future enrollment possibilities under different assumptions.
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| Projected Enrollment - 10 Year Forecast (Moderate Scenario) |
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Reduced, Moderate, and Accelerated Enrollment Forecasts
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Full 2025 PASA Demographic Study Report
